As I announced in my October 7 post, I have put Whole New World on the back burner while I have been swallowed up by a new paid-work assignment. Since then, to put it mildly, a lot has happened in the presidential campaign!
While I won’t attempt to comment on the wild and momentous events over these past few weeks, I will go on record now, just a few days from Election Day, with my prediction of the result and my reasoning behind it. And I invite you to offer your own prediction and perspective on the election in the Comments section at the end of the post.
I will continue posting, if sporadically for now, whatever the result on November 5. And I fully intend to return to more active posting at some point.
OK… so who do I believe is going to win? While the race is closer and tougher than I first believed it would be, I still believe Kamala Harris is going to be elected, and here’s why:
First, the tangible reasons:
- The Harris-Walz team’s get-out-the-vote operation is far superior to the Trump campaign’s effort. In an oh-so-close election, at least according the polls, this is probably the most important reason I feel confident.
- An exceptionally enthusiastic Democratic voting block. Yes, the Republicans are also motivated, especially the hardcore MAGA base, but Republicans have always turned out a higher percentage of their total registered voters. What’s different is how motivated Democrats are. And I have a gut feeling that old-line, non-MAGA Republicans are less motivated to vote for Trump this time, for all the obvious reasons starting with January 6.
- A big part of the Democratic edge in enthusiasm is the women vote, spurred primarily – but not solely – by their outrage at losing their inherent right to control their own bodies. Women could well be the deciding factor in this election.
- Democrats have raised more money than Republicans this year, which in itself is telling… and atypical.
Less tangibly…
- The dissembling of Donald Trump. I don’t know how his increasing tirades and instability and incoherence cannot make at least a dent in his support, famously intractable though it has been.
- The growing number of prominent Republicans who have defected and are supporting Harris. Too many to list, though it should be many more. And I can’t think of any examples of the opposite. Well, ok, RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard.
- Finally, faith in my fellow citizens. As shockingly strong as the support for Donald Trump has been, I remain confident that the majority of Americans are repelled by the MAGA movement and will reject Trump on November 5.
I believe the polls will be proven wrong and Kamala will win by a comfortable and possibly even a decisive margin. And in my wilder fantasies, I can still visualize the outcome that by all rights this election should produce: a landslide.
I could go on, but there you have it. We’ll see soon if all the above is the product of wishful thinking or solid analysis.
So… what do you think? Please share your thoughts below!
My prediction: Harris. Why? Intuition, faith in humanity, because the alternative would lead to an alternative America…because I just can’t imagine that our country has more people full of hate and/or willingness to look past hate than people who have hope and empathy.
Beautifully stated, Karina. As you can see, I’m of the same mind. With some luck and hard work by those of us who share this view – assuming she wins – these Trump years will not only become a relic of our past, but help us strengthen our democracy in ways that will make it less likely that a demagogue can rise to power again. Which means making government more responsive to the general public and less beholden to the super-wealthy. It’s a tough challenge, but that’s how we can make the ground less fertile for the bad seeds of authoritarianism. That’s how I see it. Thanks for your great comment! Go Kamala!
I also believe that Kamala will win, Ron, but I don’t think it will be a landslide. I’m predicting a nail-biter. Hope I’m wrong!
I’m very concerned about what the MAGA-ites will do if Trump loses. There’s a lot of very unstable people there. However, I’m confident that Biden will have the National Guard surrounding the capitol building on January 6th, at least 5 guardsmen/women deep. With extremely strong barricades. No repeat of last time.
To be clear, I am not predicting a landslide, though it is on the outer edges of what I envision. Just a clear and convincing victory would be great, enough to reduce the effectiveness of the attempts by Trump to contest the election. And if it’s the close nail-biter that your foresee, then ok, I’ll accept that over a loss! But it will fuel the Trump forces’ efforts to challenge the result. So sad that we even have to worry about such. As for January 6, and also the 20th, inauguration day… phew, not real fun to think about. But as you say, I’m confident that those who are charged with thinking about and planning for it will do a good job of it. Thanks for commenting! Go Kamala!
With all my heart I want a Harris landslide win. But if the polls are right, it will be tight race and decided by one battleground state. This brings me to a darker prediction, in which the election devolves into a legal battle like 2000 Bush v Gore situation. It’ll be dragged out in courts all the way to the Supreme Court, which will come to a ruling that hands Trump the election somehow, considering his sway with the justices. Really hoping something like that doesn’t happen. Go Kamala!!!
For sure that is one of a number of unpleasant scenarios. I think the Dems and their legal teams are well prepared for any and all such possibilities, but as you say, if it somehow gets to the Supremes, hoo boy, we’re in trouble. I don’t think that will happen but who knows. The bigger the margin we can produce, the lower the chances the Trump forces will have something viable to counter with. Thanks for the comment, Todd! Go Kamala!
As I said from the very beginning this election is only about 3 states: PA, MI, WI.
MI and WI are most likely blue. So this election will be decided by Pennsylvania.
It’s 9PM on the East Coast and still as unclear as ever. Definitely no landslides.